Wednesday, March 27, 2013

FOCUS: TELUK KEMANG, NEGERI SEMBILAN

 source of news: Malaysian Insider (http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysia/article/tough-choices-in-teluk-kemang-from-both-sides-of-political-divide/)

 

Tough choices in Teluk Kemang from both sides of political divide

By Sugasini Kandiah
March 27, 2013
The next general election is expected to be the closest fight to form the new Malaysian government. And several seats across the nation are likely to be heated battles with the slimmest of majorities. The Malaysian Insider takes a look at some of these hot seats in what will be an intense election for control of Malaysia.
The roads leading to Teluk Kemang are empty on weekdays but clogged up on weekends. — Pictures by Saw Siow FengPORT DICKSON, March 27 ― As Malaysia waits with bated breath for the prime minister to announce his final candidate list and declare a general election, for the people of Teluk Kemang the suspense reaches a whole new level.
Unlike in many other constituencies where residents more or less know who their potential candidates may be, in this area it is anyone’s guess.
On the Barisan Nasional (BN) front, the fight seems to be split three ways.
First, there is Teluk Kemang’s former MP and Port Dickson resident Datuk S. Sothinathan who, in spite of his 2008 defeat to current PKR MP Datuk Kamarul Baharin Abbas, has continued to serve residents and appear at local functions over the last five years.
When met during an interview in Port Dickson, Sothinathan said, “I have never closed my office even after losing because I have a duty to serve. Winning and losing is part of the game but I believe that staying here has won me the support of the people. You have to make sacrifices in order to have an edge over others.”
A lawyer by training, Sothinathan’s main claim to fame came when he was suspended for speaking up in Parliament against the government’s attempt to derecognise degrees from Ukraine’s Crimea State Medical University where many young Malaysian Indians were studying.
Sothinathan has stayed on to serve the constituents despite losing in Election 2008.In spite of Sothinathan’s service track record and popularity among Indians, news reports suggest that MIC president Datuk G. Palanivel will elect his ally and party secretary-general, Datuk S. Murugesan, to contest in this traditionally MIC-held seat instead.
In a phone interview, Murugesan, who lost badly in 2008 when he contested in Subang, refused to comment on the possibility of his candidacy in Teluk Kemang. However, he has been quoted elsewhere as saying that he has “not been doing any groundwork” in the area as he has not yet not been made a candidate.
Given the internal feud within the party, Sothinathan says that he is banking on the prime minister to pick him as a candidate even if that decision is not necessarily what MIC wants.
Still, the final decision on whom BN will choose to place in Teluk Kemang may involve a twist of sorts as insiders predict that Datuk Seri Najib Razak will eventually pick former Negri Sembilan Menteri Besar and current Bagan Pinang assemblyman Tan Sri Mohd Isa Abdul Samad to helm BN’s battle in the constituency.
This seems highly likely after a survey around Chuah, Lukut, Port Dickson and Linggi, the four state assembly seats which along with Bagan Pinang form the Teluk Kemang parliamentary constituency, showed that the current FELDA chairman, who had at one-time been suspended from Umno for money politics, had been hosting events to meet the rakyat well outside his Bagan Pinang jurisdiction.
Isa is indeed a popular choice in Teluk Kemang, especially among the Malay constituents who credit the former MB for bringing development to the area. One reason why Sothinathan may have lost in 2008 was due to protest votes against Umno for not allowing Isa to run.
Isa has organised events in recent weeks to win over support from residents.One Port Dickson resident told us that Isa had organized many events in the last few weeks where scores of people turn up and queue for cash handouts.
As for who the Opposition will field, the answer is not straightforward either. According to residents, current MP Datuk Kamarul Baharin is hardly seen in the area. Many do not even know his name let alone recognise his face. That he has accomplished little over the last five years does not help either.
In an interview with Kamarul, he said “It’s hard to do much since Negri is not a Pakatan state. The state government controls funding and projects that we submit often do not get approved.”
Should the staunch ally and former MCKK classmate of Opposition Leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim become PKR’s candidate again, it is likely he will face an uphill battle winning the same votes that came so easily to him during the 2008 election tsunami.
Hence, the rumour mill churns that PKR will field a retired general instead to accommodate the constituency’s 8,000-strong army voter base, a group which did not support the opposition in 2008. With its main operations centre situated a stone’s throw away from army quarters, PKR seems to have an established strategy for winning over Teluk Kemang’s soldiers.
Over the last few years, the party has been actively recruiting some of the country’s top retired army personnel. Bigwigs include Royal Malaysian Air Force Brigadier-General (Rtd) Datuk Abdul Hadi Abdul Khattab and former army chief General Tan Sri Md Hashim Hussein, also a former MCKK classmate of Anwar Ibrahim’s.
The KTM Seremban-Port Dickson freight service was stopped in 2009.Abdul Hadi, in particular, is already on the ceramah circuit in Teluk Kemang as part of PKR’s efforts to “educate” and increase awareness among those in the army. He would be a likely candidate.
With so many parties and politicians eager to wrest this seat, the question is: What do the residents of this 70,000 strong constituency really want?
Home to Port Dickson, a once bustling seaside haven in the 80s and 90s, a place often featured in the essays of schoolchildren describing how they spent their holidays, today, the town is a sorry sight.
When asked why this prime tourist destination had deteriorated so drastically, many residents point to the lack of upkeep of the town’s beaches.
According to Kamarul, “There was no proper planning with development, no plan to keep up… How does PD maintain itself as tourist destination where there are oil refineries everywhere all around and the sea contains sewerage? Today, portions of the beach extending out to the sea have even been allocated to cronies. Malaysia is the only place in the world that I know of where the sea can be privatised!”
The KTM freight service that came directly to Port Dickson’s beaches was suspended in 2009 and the newly-built PD bus station barely sees any buses.
Yet, by and large, the people in this constituency are fairly content. Many residents interviewed, with the exception of businessmen and shopkeepers of course, did not exhibit a sense of nostalgia for a return to Port Dickson’s heyday.
In fact, one of the biggest complaints by residents concerned the traffic jams that take place nearly every weekend when people from nearby cities come down here for an outing.
Sothinathan does not think that a complete revival is necessary for residents either. “Tourism alone can’t sustain the local economy. We need new developments, new industries to create employment opportunities here.”
And this might be something the constituency’s older and more conservative Malay residents actually want given that beach parties and excessive displays of revelry have stirred protests in the past.
Nonetheless, the decline in tourist numbers has led to many abandoned projects and unoccupied apartments. During the weekdays especially, most shopping areas including the new PD Waterfront are virtually deserted.
In this semi-urban constituency, Malays make up 41.2 per cent of the voters while Chinese and Indians form 33.8 per cent and 21.1 per cent respectively. Many also fall into the older age group as Port Dickson is home to many pensioners.
The Chinese residents of Teluk Kemang, like Chinese communities elsewhere in the country, are likely to continue throwing their support behind the Opposition. An issue that is particularly controversial for the Chinese here is the loss of Bukit Pelanduk’s pig rearing industry, which was the biggest pig farming area in South East Asia at the time, due to the 1999 Nipah virus outbreak.
Much anger is still harboured against the BN government for failing to provide farmers with adequate compensation. Additionally, the collective pig farming area that had been shut down during the epidemic has yet to be reopened a decade later causing continued loss of income.
For the Indians of Teluk Kemang, many of whom reside in the area’s large Sime Darby estates, BR1M handouts as well as the deputy prime minister’s recent visit to launch a large-scale low-cost housing project for Ladang Tanah Merah workers may swing some votes.
Never mind that the land is totally bare and nothing has actually been built. Never mind that the project was promised to the people some two decades ago. If BN puts forth the right candidate, it should be able to count on the substantial Indian vote.
As elections loom, the struggle in Teluk Kemang will undeniably be interesting to observe ― how will the candidates be chosen and how in turn, will the rakyat respond?

Monday, March 25, 2013

HOT ELECTION TOPIC: 'PROJECT IC' IN SABAH

The significant rise in the population of Sabah as compared to the rest of the country has always been a topic of contention among Malaysians. With the setup of the RCI in Sabah and the intrusion of the Sulu 'terrorists', the spotlight is now on Sabah and the reaction of the Natives in that state. 

The rather uncomfortable and restless reactions from BN indicate the fear that this will have a spillover effect on the state they called a 'fixed deposit'. The accusations of the existence of 'Project IC', the revelations during the RCI and the latest crisis in Eastern Sabah has riled up many Malaysians.

With the sudden spike in new Malaysians in Sabah particularly Muslims from southern Philippines, Indonesia. Pakistan, etc, the demographics of this state has changed dramatically and the socio-economic situation has deteriorated as the stress on the public services increased to a near breaking point. 

Another thing to watch is how these situations affect the voting patterns of the natives in Sabah. Below is one article about the latest updates in the Sabah situation:

Sunday, March 24, 2013

% Popular votes versus Number of seats won





One of my earlier posts indicated that BN won 140 seats out of the 222 parliament seats up for grabs in the GE 12 which is 63% of the seats up for grabs. However, if we look closely at the total votes cast and the % won by BN, it is much closer than we expected. 

From the 7.9 million votes, BN won merely 51.4% of the popular votes. this means about 12% difference between the popular vote and number of seats won. This is achieved through decades of delineation exercises to make constituencies very disproportionate where the smallest constituency in Malaysia (Putrajaya - approximately 6000 voters) to the largest (Kapar - more than 100 thousand voters) which is almost 20 times smaller. 

This gives BN a very big advantage as some analyst actually stated that if BN won all the smallest seats to get a simple majority, they will only need less than 20% of the popular votes in this country. 

Gerrymandering in Malaysia
source: http://malaysiafactbook.com/Gerrymandering_in_Malaysia
What is gerrymandering?

According to wikipedia:

"In the process of setting electoral districts, gerrymandering is a practice that attempts to establish a political advantage for a particular party or group by manipulating district boundaries to create partisan advantaged districts."


 

State by state analysis of the seats

Over the next few weeks I will put up breakdown of each state and parliament seats, also their 2012 election results and any other articles that is related to those seats (if available).

Pakatan Rakyat Manifesto GE 13

The first Manifesto to be published is by Pakatan Rakyat. This time in one glance there are more details and more specific info on the various points of their promises if they win the federal government. Pls download from below:

http://www.pakatanrakyat.my/



It is known as the Manifesto Rakyat.

From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifesto)

"A manifesto is a published verbal declaration of the intentions, motives, or views of the issuer, be it an individual, group, political party or government.[1][2][3] A manifesto usually accepts a previously published opinion or public consensus and/or promotes a new idea with prescriptive notions for carrying out changes the author believes should be made."

 I am still waiting for the BN Manifesto for this coming GE 13.

WILL PARLIAMENT DISSOLVE THIS COMING WEEK?

The tension mounts as Negeri Sembilan State Assembly will be automatically dissolved this coming week. We will have to wait to see if the PM will dissolve the parliament or continue the longest to date parliament term that has stretched beyond 5 years already since 308.

Lets watch the drama unfolds this coming week.

History: GE 12 Election Results *updated*

The history of the GE 12 contest on 308 as follows:


With 222 parliament seats up for grabs in 2008, BN managed to win 140 seats as compared to the Pakatan Rakyat winning a historic 82 seats. The denial of the 2/3 majority came with a shock as BN has never lost the 2/3 majority in the parliament which comes with the ability to amend constitution of the country, amend electoral boundaries, etc.

The ability to amend the electoral boundaries is considered important as major revamps of the boundaries where conducted after each election to ensure that gerrymandering of certain seats to allow bigger victories following slight reversals of the previous elections. It is a powerful tool that BN has enjoyed over the years until the events of 308.

This is the FIRST election (as far as I know) ever since the independence of this country that BN has no power to effect any significant changes to electoral boundaries to enhance their already lopsided advantage to win more seats.

More shocking is the loss of 4 states namely Kedah, Penang, Perak and Selangor in addition to retaining Kelantan by the Pakatan Rakyat shook the country to its core that for the first time there are 5 states under the administration of Pakatan Rakyat. 


BN only won 303 of the 505 state seats while Pakatan took 200 and 2 independent candidates won their respective seats. The fall of Selangor was particularly painful as it was the richest state and also the economic powerhouse of the country. Penang saw the destruction of Gerakan and the loss of Kedah, the homestate of former PM, Tun Dr Mahathir was a slap in the face of UMNO.

However, Perak soon was recaptured by BN through the defections of 3 of its assemblymen (although one defected briefly from UMNO to PKR then returning to UMNO). 

For more info on who are the representatives of the Parliament for the period 2008 to 2013:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Members_of_the_Dewan_Rakyat,_12th_Malaysian_Parliament

Introduction to this blog

Since GE 13 is pretty near, Malaysians are anxious to get it over and done with. With whatever info I've got, I will try my best to share to everyone. The interest in Malaysian Politics have grown over the past 5 years since the 308 Elections where historic gains by the Pakatan Rakyat has triggered massive interest especially among the young and educated. 

Many have registered themselves to vote and hence the importance of this coming GE 13 is enormous. The mass participation of young malaysians will directly influence the future of this country. 

Since 2 years ago, massive campaigns have been carried out by the different parties in Malaysia. BN, the current ruling government with the might of the state machinery have been relentlessly try to recover the losses they suffered in the last GE, while Pakatan continued from where they started, a push for a possible win in the coming general election. 

It may look like an uneven contest, but with the emergence of social media such as facebook, twitter, etc and the increased penetration of internet broadband in this country, Pakatan has narrowed the odds with internet news and outreach through the new media while BN retains its dominance in the printed and television news. 

So, my purpose of putting this blog is to chart the political scene of our beloved country, Malaysia. Especially the coverage of the coming GE 13. It is anticipated that there will be many attempts at knocking off internet news portals like Malaysiakini and political party websites. So i hope to be able to contribute what I can to help spread the news around.